In 2022, when Putin launched his war against Ukraine, he was confident that it would be a quick victory. However, 4 years later, the war is ongoing, and Ukraine is still standing tall. 

Now, a new war is emerging, inside Russia’s own borders. The people are calling for peace talks, while the citizens at the front lines and government loyalists are still standing on the side of the war. Yet, the public opinion tells a story about Putin’s regime; it shows us that he is taking advantage of and benefiting from the same vulnerable groups that he is exploiting for his war. 

The Rural-Urban Divide

The calls for peace have amplified since 2022, with pro-war supporters falling from 75% to 20%; 83% of the public is starting to call for a patriotic government that takes care of domestic matters, not launching foreign wars. But this sentiment is not equally distributed amongst the citizens. While only 26% of Moscow residents expressed support for the war, 40% of the rural population were in favor. Although the Russian media is used constantly as propaganda, smaller cities are more sternly affected, therefore more willing to buy the lies the government is spewing out. 

Svetlana, a 86 year old woman from the village in the Krasnodar Region, told the Moscow Times, “Governmental media don’t lie!… I can use the internet, but how can I trust it?” The news she watches calls the enemy “Nazis.” She doesn’t hear about the millions dead. 

Instead, in these rural areas where the internet is limited or not available at all, she gets her information from state television. Many of the villagers are glad to go to war: they think, “rather than waiting for call-up papers, it’s better to volunteer” and “we need to defend Russia from the Nazis.”

Just take the village of Kerchomya, a remote village in the North-western part of Russia. About ⅓ of all working-age men have left home to fight for the war. The heartbreak stays strong in the village left behind. Online forums have morphed into obituaries. These villages see more job openings than applicants, taking a toll on the local industry. All while none of these villagers express any resentment against the government, only against the “neo-nazis” they are fighting against. 

Even more cruelly, the casualties of the war aren’t proportional at all. 

Political Safety > Steep Casualties

Rural and ethnic minorities contribute more to the war effort than urban cities. The British Ministry of Defense explains why: “By focusing recruitment efforts disproportionately on impoverished regions, often predominantly populated by ethnic minorities… limiting impact on those urban-dwelling parts of the Russian population that have greater political agency.” 

The gap is backed by data. Across Russia, 40% of respondents stated that the war didn’t impact their lives, while in Moscow, the share increased to 50%. Although Ukrainian drones have caused disruptions to the internet and oil supply in these cities, proving that Putin can not protect the base he depends on, the villages suffer more. 

The political and military leadership is willing to sacrifice people to protect themselves and achieve their invasion goals. How can Putin still say that this is a war for the Russian people?

The “Hawks,”  an ideological group in Russia that are in firm support for the war, rallying for “national identification with Russia,” usually reside in rural areas and rely on state-owned tv for their information. Meaning, villagers like Svetlana who cling to nationalistic ideology are being used by the government to further its own agenda with no care about them. Putin’s war is not a war for the people. With him picking and choosing who to protect and who to exploit, he is fighting his own people as well.